The Great Ammo Crisis – The Truth Behind The Shortage

The perfect storm.

NRA Shooting Illustrated
by Caleb Giddings – Friday, February 5, 2021

Everyone is aware of the ammunition crisis. Major media outlets have covered it, it’s all over what little of your social media feed hasn’t been censored, and I’ve been covering in detail since July. The ammo crisis has been constantly evolving, starting as a mere shortage in the early days of the COVID-19 lockdowns, and progressing to a full-blown crisis as I write this 321 days after March 13th.

What caused it?

The simple explanation is that demand exceeded the supply, then continued to exceed the supply. But to understand how that happened you have to go a little deeper. According to Jason Vanderbrink, President of Federal, CCI, Speer and Remington, before the COVID-19 pandemic, there was considerable excess capacity in the ammunition market.

Manufacturers could make more than they could sell, so supply was abundant and prices were low. You could order a case of 9 mm off the Internet for $200. Manufacturers were prepared for an uptick in sales that normally accompanies a presidential election, but the excess capacity would have been enough to cover that.

2020 had other ideas. The first was the COVID-19 pandemic. Then a summer of civil unrest that sometimes turned violent. A hotly contested presidential election, and then the party of gun control having control of both houses of Congress and the Presidency.

Any single one of those would have spiked demand, but all these factors happening in rapid succession was more than the market could bear. Partly because the NSSF estimates that 7 million new gun owners entered the market in 2020. As Vanderbrink pointed out, if those 7 million new gun owners each bought 100 rounds of ammo, that’s 700 million rounds that the market needs to produce.

To put that in context, the entire commercial market in 2018 made approximately 8 billion rounds. An 8.75 increase in demand wouldn’t shut everything down, but when it’s added on top of the demand created by all the other factors, it becomes too much.

How high is demand?

During a media presentation at Virtual SHOT Show 2021, Winchester said that if they stopped taking orders for .22 LR right now, it would take 2 years to fill all the back-orders. In December, the Vista family of companies, which comprises Federal, CCI, Speer, and Remington, announced they had a $1 billion backlog in orders. In the first 3 months of the COVID-19 lockdown, Winchester experienced a 17-percent surge in orders, which hasn’t tapered off.

Why can’t they build more factories?

The first question on people’s minds is “Why don’t these companies expand capacity?” That’s much easier said than done. Vista, for example, is already running three shifts a day, and operating 24/7. The same is true for Magtech in Brazil. For one of these companies to add capacity, they’d have to build a new space, and buy new machines, and train and staff the new machines.

All that while hoping that the bottom doesn’t fall out of the ammo market like it did in 2017. That investment in extra space costs millions of dollars and takes years to pay off, and if you look at past trends in the ammo market, not even this surge will last forever.

Why are prices so high at the consumer level?

Vista, Winchester, and Magtech/S&B announced a 15-percent price increase to distributors. Distributors have already raised prices, and of course at the retail level prices are coming up. Prices have to come up to create equilibrium. Eventually the cost to the consumer will be high enough that people won’t panic buy 9 mm FMJ. Retailers will start to have more stock than they can sell and prices will start to come down.

The manufacturer price increase helps as well. In a letter to distributors, Vista announced that all back orders would ship with the higher price. If this causes people to cancel their back order, that frees up theoretical capacity to go into the market. Using AmmoSeek to track historical 9 mm prices, the online price for 9 mm seems to have plateaued at between $0.80 and $0.90 per round for quality new manufactured 9 mm, which is actually a good sign.

Why can’t I get primers?

Only two domestic companies make primers, Vista and Winchester. All their primers are going into their production ammo for retail. Normally, the primer market is fed by companies being able to make more primers than they’d ever need to make loaded ammo. In 2020 and now 2021, that’s not been the case, so every primer that rolls off the line is going into a loaded piece of ammunition so the consumers can have something to immediately shoot. It’s a tough situation for reloaders, but the priority will always be the commercial shooting market.

What about the government?

To answer the question right off the bat, no, the government is not buying ammo and stockpiling it in a warehouse somewhere to keep it off the market. The largest government consumer of ammunition is the Department of Defense, and the majority of their ammo comes from the Lake City plant, which is currently administered by Winchester. Lake City is owned entirely by the government—all the machines, all the land, etc. The government then contracts its operation to private companies, with Winchester taking over for Northrop Grumman in 2020.

Other federal agencies and local LE agencies do source from private manufacturers, but they’re getting squeezed too. Federal contracts are public record, and there has been no unusual ammo related purchasing activity since the shortage began in March. Local LE agencies don’t have the purchasing power to cause a shortage like this, unless there was some secret meeting of all the police chiefs in the country to secretly buy all the ammo (there wasn’t). While it might feel good to believe there’s some sinister force behind the ammo crisis, the answer is a slightly more complicated version of “supply and demand.”

What are the companies doing about it?

As noted above, everything they can. Mike Fisher, the VP of Sales and Marketing at Magtech, said in a phone call, “We’re doing everything we can to get product to our loyal customers. We’ve worked hard to build these relationships and getting them ammo, so they can get it to the consumer, is our first priority.”

In a video statement, Jason Hornady said that they have made a third more ammo this year than they did in the previous year, and also pointed out that there is no government conspiracy to make ammo scarce. As noted above, the price increases across the board will eventually have a stabilizing effect on the supply of ammo, as it will eventually reach a point where most people won’t feel the need to buy.

You can help as well. The most important thing you can do as a consumer is don’t panic. Ammo is available. AmmoSeek shows a daily inventory of what its bots find in stock. There’s ammo for sale on GunBroker and ArmsList. It’s more expensive than any of us would want, but it’s better to have it available than to have empty shelves. The second most important thing you can do is “don’t be that guy.”

You know that guy—the one who finds 55-grain .223 at a great price and cleans the whole place out. That guy sucks. Buy what you need and maybe a little more, but don’t buy 10,000 rounds of ammo you’re going to end up trying to flip to make a car payment in 6 months.

Last, stop repeating conspiracy theories. Contrary to what your favorite YouTube entertainer told you, there’s no government or industry conspiracy to drive up the price of ammo.

When will it get better?

In my first article about this, I optimistically thought that if Republicans retained control of the Senate, we’d be back to normal supply levels with slightly increased pricing by July. Given the state of the back orders, I don’t think we’ll see a return to regular levels of supply now until early 2022.

As far as pricing? Sometime after supply gets back to normal level, and that’s assuming that nothing weird happens in 2021 (everyone knock on wood right now). Right now the best thing to do is stay calm, don’t panic buy, and let the ammo industry do everything they can to get caught up.

Responding To The Alarm

NRA Concealed Carry Firearms Training For Elected Officials

Running toward the sound of fire . . . .

In-Gauge of Polk County Conducting NRA Concealed Carry Training For Elected Officials and Candidates

In-Gauge of Polk County is offering NRA concealed carry/firearm training classes for elected officials and political candidates.

As a community service and in the interest of promoting firearm safety, In-Gauge of Polk County, a private, non-profit, NRA affiliated club specializing in firearm training is offering, specialized concealed carry/handgun safety training for elected officials and political candidates.

Participants must be a sitting elected official or an officially announced/registered political candidate for local, state or federal office.

Both official National Rifle Association basic and advanced concealed carry training is available.

An official certificate of training will be issued upon successful completion of the training, good for applying for Florida’s concealed weapons license.  NRA training certificates are nationally recognized and can be used as a pre-requisite for more advanced firearms training and for applying for concealed carry weapons licensing where applicable.

Donations will be accepted to prevent conflict with local, State and Federal campaign and gift laws.

Those interested in participating in classes should contact Pat, with In-Gauge of Polk County at: 863-206-1996.

For further information contact:

In-Gauge of Polk County
info.ingauge@gmail.com
6039 Cypress Gardens Boulevard
Winter Haven, Florida  33884

Ours is more than concealed carry training.
Ours is firearms training.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NRA, National Rifle Association, concealed carry training, gun safety training, self-defense training, concealed carry weapons class, Polk County, Florida, Sheriff Wayne Ivey, Brevard County

Basic Shotgun Training

Why we teach shotgun handling  –  They walk among us . . . .

Contact us for all your firearm training needs . . .

Training  and  Course Descriptions

Former Vice President Joe Biden once said:  “Buy a shotgun.”

That may be all well and good.  But, learn how to use it . . . . .

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Unfortunately, these folks didn’t . . . 

Learn to do it right . . . .

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Contact us for all your firearm training needs . . .

Training  and  Course Descriptions

How do you know if the firearm training you are about to take is an official NRA firearm training class?  Check out two of our web pages:   Questions To Ask   /  Official NRA Training Class?  and  FAQ

 

 

 

In-Gauge of Polk County, self-defense, shotgun training, firearm training, concealed carry, concealed weapons permit, home defense, NRA, gun training, Polk County, Winter Haven, Lakeland, Florida,

New to firearms & searching concealed carry training? Questions you may have …

FAQ – Concealed Carry Training

 If you are new to firearms, it is understood that acquiring training information may be overwhelming.  Further, you may not know what questions to ask when searching for concealed carry training or how to use your firearm.

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To assist you in doing your research we have provided a list of questions to ask when inquiring about concealed carry firearm training.  We at In-Gauge of Polk County encourage you to inquire elsewhere before committing to a concealed carry or firearm training class.  When doing so, do not hesitate to ask the questions provided.  You may be surprised at the answers you receive.
Things to consider when looking for firearm and concealed carry license training:
  • Does the training qualify for the State’s concealed carry license application process?
  • Will you receive a nationally recognized certificate of training or is the training certificate a proprietary certificate or letter of training issued by the individual, company or agency providing the training?
  • Is the training an official NRA firearms training course or is the training only taught by a NRA firearms instructor?  There is a difference.
  • Is the course curriculum official NRA or something the instructor personally put together?
  • Will you receive an official NRA firearms training textbook as part of the course?
  • Will you receive an official NRA student packet as part of the course?
  • Will you receive a minimum of 4 hours of class room training?
  • Will you receive a minimum of 1/2 hour of live-fire range training?
  • Will your range training be on a live-fire range or just firing one round into a steel can?
  • As part of your live-fire range training, will you fire a minimum of 50 rounds of ammunition?
  • Is the training conducted by a private for profit individual or company or a non-profit, official NRA training organization?
  • Is the training 100% satisfaction guaranteed with a full refund offered if not satisfied? 
  • Does the company, agency or organization offer advanced handgun training beyond the minimum required by the state for concealed carry licensing?
  • Does the company, agency or organization offer firearms training other than handgun/concealed carry training?  
  • Is fingerprinting required for your participation a class?
  • Does the company, agency or organization require in-depth personal information (an application) before participation in a class?
  • Where will the class be conducted, in a dedicated classroom, sales area lobby, employee break room, rented hotel room or private home? 
  • Is the company, agency, organization or individual insured and licensed to conduct business?
A printable check list has been provided for your convenience.  Feel free to use it when making inquiries and then decide what is important to you.

CLICK ON   QUESTIONS TO ASK   BELOW FOR A PRINTABLE CHECK LIST

Questions To Ask – Printable CHECK LIST

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Pleased To Announce: The return of the NRA’s Basics of Pistol Shooting

The Return of the NRA’s Basics of Pistol Shooting Course – Instructor Led

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If your training certificate does not say “NRA” you did not take an official NRA training course.

In-Gauge of Polk County is happy to announce the return of the NRA’s Basics of Pistol Shooting Course.  It became official today.  Straight from the NRA Training Headquarters.

And, In-Gauge of Polk County is not wasting any time in conducting its first class.

This is the old, classroom method of conducting firearm safety and handling training which most people are familiar.

The course:

  • Is 8 hours in duration
  • Consists of both interactive hands-on classroom instruction and live-fire range training
  • Familiarization with both the revolver and semi-automatic pistol
  • Introduction to the various types of ammunition and its uses
  • Introduction to range safety procedures
  • Introduction to proper safe handgun handling, storage and use
  • Introduction to proper handgun cleaning and maintenance
  • Instruction in the fundamentals of shooting
  • Instruction in proper shooting techniques
  • Evaluation of shooting skills and techniques
  • Evaluation of the participants retention of presented course material

The participant will receive an official NRA student packet and Basics of Pistol Shooting hardcover book.

Upon successful completion of the course, the student will be provided with a nationally recognized National Rifle Association certificate of training.   * The certificate of training exceeds the State of Florida’s training requirement for its concealed weapon permit application process.

Class information:

The first course is scheduled for Saturday, May 20th starting at 9:00 am, at In-Gauge of Polk County, Winter Haven, Florida.

The minimum age for participation is 16 – Accompanied by an adult.

The cost is $75   * Additional charges if a firearm and ammunition must be provided.

Participants are encouraged to provide his/her own firearm.

For more information or to enroll, contact In-Gauge of Polk County at:  info.ingauge@gmail.com

The Basics of Practical Shooting

I came across this article a couple of days ago and thought you might find it of interest.  Regrettably I cannot take credit for the content, but it contains a lot of useful information.

The Basics of Practical Shooting

https://www.nrablog.com/articles/2017/3/the-basics-of-practical-shooting/

Blog post

Spend enough time in the shooting sports community, and you’ll discover that there are seemingly endless disciplines and kinds of competitive shooting. From traditional Olympic-style shooting to shotgun sports, high-power rifle to precision long-range rifle matches, there’s a sport for every type of gun and gun owner.

Many of these events are scored based solely on accuracy – think the pinpoint precision of the NCAA’s student-athletes like West Virginia University’s Ginny Thrasher who shoot air rifle and smallbore rifle with amazing skill.

However, there’s a wide-ranging subset of the shooting sports that combines the need for accuracy with speed, with dynamic courses that make the shooter apply as much of their defensive shooting skill as their marksmanship ability.

Enter practical shooting, where participants bring together precision, power and speed. Unlike events where the shooters stand shoulder to shoulder in a line and aim at fixed targets, practical shooting introduces real-world shooting and self-defense techniques into sport shooting.

While accurate marksmanship is still a necessity in practical shooting, the sport is more a test of expertise in the use of practical firearms and equipment – in other words, how accurately and rapidly can you draw a pistol from a holster and engage targets downrange?

With increasing numbers of Americans investing in firearms as a means of self-defense, practical shooting events provide the perfect opportunity for gun owners to move outside plinking at the range and put their training to use in a fun, competitive arena. This helps build mental dexterity, muscle memory, and shooting skills in an environment closer to what they might encounter in a defensive situation.

Most practical shooting events employ centerfire pistols firing full-power ammo as the primary firearm, and require competitors to draw from holsters – like they would in a real-life defensive scenario. Many competitors choose to use the same firearm they carry, further lending to the ethos of the sport.

Participants will engage any combination of paper and steel targets, and may often be required to shoot targets and varying distances while moving through a stage while avoiding certain “no-hit” targets. Shooting a no-hit target results in a penalty. Targets are considered practical if they reflect the typical size and shape that a firearm could reasonably be used to engage in a defensive situation, such as a silhouette target.

Depending on the design of the match, competitors may be required to shoot freestyle, prone, strong hand, off hand or some other form of shooting. The shooter needs to accurately engage all the targets in the stage as quickly as possible to accrue more points. Gone are the rows of shooters aiming at fixed targets – practical shooting forces the competitor to navigate a course riddled with barriers, doors and windows, walls, barrels, vehicles and other assorted props to simulate what they might encounter in a defensive shooting scenario.

While the course of fire should be challenging and force the shooter to employ physical and mental guile, they should be realistic, and mimic as much of a real-world potential scenario as possible.

Practical shooting sports have their roots in the “Leatherslap” matches in southern California in the 1950s. As the sport was growing in popularity but largely non-standardized, the International Practical Shooting Confederation, or IPSC, stood up in 1976 in Columbia, Missouri. Representatives from nine countries attended, and legendary firearms instructor Jeff Cooper, Marine Corps officer and founder of Gunsite Academy, was named the first president due to his esteemed work and expertise in defensive pistol shooting. Today, Cooper is considered the “father of practical shooting.”

As practical shooting continued to grow in popularity, other organizations were established to serve as governing organizations, including the United States Practical Shooting Association, the IPSC sanctioning body for national championships in the U.S. Other groups today include the Steel Challenge Shooting Association, International Defensive Pistol Association, NRA Action Pistol and Single Action Shooting Society.

Today’s practical shooting competitions come in a wide variety of formats, employing different skillsets, firearms and course design. Among the most popular is 3-Gun, where shooters use AR-style rifle, centerfire pistol and shotguns across a dynamic course of fire shooting at clay pigeons, paper and steel in multiple positions.

IPSC matches adhere to the origins of the sport, where competitors use a centerfire handgun to try and hit 15-centiment A-Zone targets while running through the course. Many of these matches are held internationally. In the U.S., the USPSA divides the country into eight areas, where shooters can participate in one of six divisions ranging from stock, off-the-shelf guns to customized “race guns,” competing against others using the same gear.

IDPA matches are designed to force competitors to solve “real-world” problems in the match, simulating a defensive engagement as closely as possible through the use of everyday carry gear and stage design. Steel challenge competitions involve less moving around on the shooter’s end, but focus more on how quickly they can shoot multiple targets accurately.

Cowboy Action shooting is also considered a practical shooting discipline, wherein shooters – dressed in period-appropriate attire – use a variety of Old West-era firearms, typically single-action revolvers, lever-action rifles and Coach guns to navigate a course featuring multiple targets.

The NRA has long been invested in practical shooting with their discipline of NRA Action Pistol, hosting the annual NRA Bianchi Cup Action Pistol National Championship, which began in 1979. The NRA Bianchi Cup, part of practical shooting’s “Triple Crown” alongside the IPSC U.S. Nationals and SCSA’s Steel Challenge, features four stages – Practical, Barricade, Falling Plate and Moving Target – where competitors shoot holster-drawn pistols from both standing and prone positions using both strong and weak hands depending on the stage.

The NRA Bianchi Cup is held every May at the Green Valley Rifle & Pistol Club in Hallsville, Missouri, just outside of Columbia. This year’s competition is scheduled for May 24-27, 2017, and registration is open now for competitors!

For more information about NRA Action Pistol and the Bianchi Cup, click here, or register for the 2017 event here. You may also email questions to bianchicup@nrahq.org, or call (703) 267-1478.

Seniors with golden guns – The Polk Senior Games 2017

We would like to direct you to our most recent appearance in the news.  The following appeared in the March 22, 2017 edition of the Winter Haven Sun newspaper . . .  Seniors With Golden Guns

In-Gauge of Polk County was a proud sponsor of the 2017 Polk Senior Games – Pistol Competition.Seniors with golden guns